The Trump Economy: Feb. 15, 2025

Click here for an overview of this report, including a link to my spreadsheet.

We’re roughly one month into the Trump economy, and so far he hasn’t followed through on his promises to “immediately bring prices down.” In fact, prices have gone up pretty significantly in his first full month.

My grocery cart of 22 everyday household items from Wal-Mart has increased by 3.15 percent since Trump’s inauguration, totaling $96.28 (from $93.34 in January). While one item in my shopping cart decreased in price (a 12-pack of Coca-Cola went from $7.64 to $6.86 due to a Wal-Mart sale), nine items in the cart increased from the previous month.

ItemJan. 20, 2025Feb. 15, 2025
Heinz Ketchup (20oz)$2.97$3.12
Rice Krispies (18oz)$4.98$5.23
Prego Sauce (24)$2.48$2.58
Ball Park Hot Dogs (8)$2.97$3.12
Breyer’s Ice Cream$4.67$5.14
BirdsEye Broccoli$1.97$2.77
Great Value Dozen Eggs$4.17$5.46
Great Value 2% Milk (g)$2.47$2.72
Land O Lakes Butter (4)$5.28$5.54

Fuel prices have also seen a significant increase in Trump’s first month, with the five closest stations to my Athens, Georgia residence going from an average price of $2.94/gallon to $3.11/gallon, an increase of 5.65%.

My list of eight electronics items at my local Best Buy increased by 3.68%, as the prices of a GE washer and dryer went up by $20 each (from a sale price of $679.99 to a sale price of $699.99) and an HP Chromebook increasing from a sale price of $279.99 to $399.99. This more than offset an $80 off sale on Apple AirPods 2.

Two metrics that were positive in Trump’s first month were the stock market (up 2.92%) and my home value (up 0.22%).

My 401(k) rate of return, the US inflation rate and the unemployment rate all report a month behind, so those will be reported next month.

The Trump Economy: Breakdown

“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one,” Donald Trump said in an August press conference, also vowing to slash gas prices by 50%.

Trump’s economic promises likely gave him the boost needed to win the election, as Americans have been hit hard by inflation, which increased year-over-year by 5.2% over Biden’s tenure.

How is President Trump doing on his promises to “bring prices down?” From his first day in office (1/20/25) and the 15th of every month, I will keep track of my cart of 22 grocery items from my local Walmart. The items range from household essentials (toilet paper, paper towels, dish soap) to popular food items (milk, eggs, chicken).

I’m tracking eight popular electronics items from my local Best Buy, including a GE top-loading washer and dryer, a Samsung 55-inch smart TV, an HP Chromebook and Apple AirPods.

I’m tracking fuel prices from the five closest gas stations to my home, as well as my 401(k) monthly rate of return (from Fidelity) and my home value (from Zillow).

I will also list the major stock market closing numbers (S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average) on the 15th of every month (or the closest day to it if the market is closed), the monthly unemployment rate and the monthly rate of inflation. The latter two reports are the only federal government data I am using for this analysis.

I don’t pretend to think this reporting technique is comprehensive or “scientific.” The grocery, electronics and fuel prices represent prices in Athens, Georgia. The home value and 401(k) reports are from my personal accounts. But that’s exactly what makes this reporting unique. Instead of relying on abstract national data produced by the government, the goal of this reporting is to see the impact (positive or negative) of the Trump presidency on the economy from a real, personal standpoint.

My spreadsheet of prices will also be publicly available through Google Sheets. I also have screenshots of all prices, which I will publish as soon as I find an appropriate way to display them.

Conclave: keeping the church in check

This is the third of 10 reviews as I attempt to watch all 2024 movies nominated for the “Best Picture” Academy Award.

“Conclave” was damn good and, although fictional, very much rooted in truth if you think about the well-publicized scandals in the Catholic church. But it’s about much more than the church.

It’s a reminder that when you have a massive entity with centralized decision-making belonging to one person, the human desire for power and control will likely trump one’s desire to do what’s in the best interests of the organization. The only hope for democracy -er- the Catholic Church is to have a handful of morally-driven, God-fearing people near the seat of power who lack the desire to be “the one,” allowing that person to keep a clear mind when making decisions and advising the powerful.

In the movie, this person is played by Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence. So distraught by the politics of the papacy, Lawrence wishes to resign only to be hand-selected by the terminally ill Pope to lead the Cardinals in finding his successor. Fiennes plays this reluctant character intelligently — the Sherlock Holmes of Vatican City — uncovering the demons of his fellow Cardinal frontrunners to be Pope, including John Lithgow’s Cardinal Tremblay, Stanley Tucci’s Cardinal Bellini and Lucas Msamati’s Cardinal Adeyemi.

I won’t give away the surprise ending, only to say the protagonist begins to chip away at his own moral fabric as he becomes obsessed with his own quest — not for power, but for the truth. A reminder that we’re all susceptible to our deepest internal desires. But hopefully, we all have someone around — not just a rubber stamp — to keep us in check.

Joe’s Judgement: 8/10

‘The Substance’ lacks substance

This is the second of 10 reviews as I attempt to watch all 2024 movies nominated for the “Best Picture” Academy Award.

While watching this movie, I was reminded of “Her” from 2013. Like “The Substance,” “Her” snuck into the Oscar nominations as a low-budget, critical darling with some decent star power and an overt moral message — perhaps even warning — about what can happen in the not-so-distant future we when succumb to our desires for the perfect mate (Her) or the perfect self (Substance).

That’s where the similarities end. While the 2013 sci-fi comedy had hints of hope and ultimately a “happily ever after” ending, “The Substance” is a straight horror film. Demi Moore plays Elizabeth Sparkle, a fading and aging star who loses her role on a popular workout show for simply getting older. An over-the-top Dennis Quaid, playing the ratings-hungry producer, is seeking her replacement, prioritizing looks over everything.

Enter the substance. Through a strange series of events that makes little logical sense, Elizabeth ends up being solicited to try this new treatment that promises a “younger, beautiful and perfect” self. She gives in, and after going through an unnecessarily strange process to get the substance, finally injects it into herself. Within minutes, rather than transforming her body, the substance produces another lifeform out of her (think scenes from Alien). After a truly grotesque process, the substance produces Sue, played by Margaret Qualley, a “younger, beautiful and perfect” version of Elizabeth.

Sue auditions for the workout show role her source body just lost, instantly gets hired and becomes a sensation. However, to continue to live as Sue, she must keep Elizabeth’s body alive through a substance-provided food pack, and every weekend assume the body of Elizabeth. But using the substance requires a rigorous schedule, one that a hard-partying Sue can’t keep up with, and that causes some alien-like body issues. Sue and Elizabeth — who are supposed to be one — end up resenting each other and sabotaging each other, causing more and more problems with their body.

This movie’s message of body positivity is shoved down the viewer’s throat (or taken out of Sue’s throat in one particular scene). It’s using shock tactics to sell the message — like showing pictures of aborted fetuses to promote a “pro-life” message. When it comes to visual effects, this is one of the goriest movies I’ve ever seen. In the body transformations, nothing is left to interpretation. The climactic fight scene between a heavily defigured Elizabeth and Sue makes Tarantino movies seem tame. And the ending violence makes Tony Soprano look like a gentleman.

“The Substance” is too much. Released earlier in the year, this movie was off the Oscar radar until a late push came for the film and Moore, who won her first major acting award when she took home a Golden Globe for her role as Elizabeth. Recognition for Moore was long overdue, and her performance in the movie was solid, I think. It’s hard to focus on the actors when the substance of the film is drowned out with gore and preachiness.

Joe’s Judgement: 4/10

Wickedly fantastical flick

This is the first of 10 reviews as I attempt to watch all 2024 movies nominated for the “Best Picture” Academy Award.

Of all the “Best Picture” nominees, the only movie I saw in theaters prior to the announcement was “Wicked.” I’m a huge fan of the musical was curious to see if Jon Chu’s big-screen adaptation would live up to the highly-acclaimed Broadway phenomenon.

Theatrical adaptations are hit-or-miss. Getting the singing and acting down isn’t too difficult — there’s hundreds of talented performers, from newcomers to international pop stars — clamoring to be in musical adaptations. It’s the set design and special effects that make adaptations of musicals work on the big screen. For every “Chicago” there’s a “Rock of Ages,” or even worse, “Cats.” And with the elaborate, imaginary world of Oz serving as the backdrop for the story, I feared “Wicked” would tilt towards the latter. Would Chu create a set that’s too over-the-top, making the movie a farce?

It was better.

What I feared would be “Wicked’s” biggest drawback is it’s greatest strength. Shiz University, where the majority of the film is set, makes Hogwarts look like a community college. Parents drop off their future scholars by boat at the waterfront quad. The dorm rooms are castle-like, complete with royal balconies. Most impressive is the spacious Shiz Library — or “book place” as Galinda describes it — decorated with giant wooden arches and rotating bookcases. Emerald City was another meteoric set design accomplishment. Although largely CGI-constructed, the neoclassical architecture and colorful scenery looks real, and feels magical. Production designer Nathan Crowley and his crew successfully pulled off their goal of creating something “fantastical,” and is a lock for an Academy Award for Production Design.

Chu did not take his extraordinary set for granted. Whether it’s the halls of Shiz University or the Wizard’s castle, the set is masterfully intertwined into the scenes, serving as vital a role as the actors. Most memorable is Jonathan Bailey’s (as Fiyero) performance of “Dancing Through Life,” that utilizes virtually every section of the elaborate Shiz Library, including performers opening and closing books to the beat while on the gravity-defying (pun intended) rotating bookcases.

“Wicked” was cast perfectly. Cynthia Erivo will make it difficult for Academy voters to deny her an opportunity to become the youngest performer to ever receive an EGOT, as her portrayal of the protaganist Elphaba was the best performance of her already-storied career. From the character’s deep vulnerability and desperate attempts to garner love and acceptance from her father to her self-assuredness entering a room for the first time and hearing people gasp at her greeness, Erivo demonstrated that she doesn’t just have great vocal range, but also has an incredible acting range. It’s impossible not to fall in love with her character.

The biggest surprise for me was Ariana Grande’s Glinda. The danger of having a pop icon in a highly anticipated film adaptation is that the star it too popular (pun intended) for the film. Whether intentional or not, the superstar can shift the attention off the cast and story and onto herself. It’s what happened in Madonna’s “Evita.” However, Grande demonstrates that she understands her role in the film as Glinda, the glamourous, ditzy and perky enemy-turned-best-friend of Elphaba. On paper, it’s easy to find Glinda’s character shallow and emotionless, but Grande makes you fall in love with Glinda, even when she’s trying to sabotage Elphaba. She’s not inherently superficial. She just doesn’t know any better. The moment when Glinda recognizes the pain she caused Elphaba is one of the most powerful emotional moments that happened on screen in 2024. And Chu does an excellent job of letting that scene breath — a long moment of silence in an otherwise boisterous film.

I’m not sure if “Wicked” will win the Academy Award for Best Picture, but it is certainly a strong contender. This movie serves as a blueprint for future musical adaptations.

Joe’s Judgement: 10/10